Market forecast of vinyl acetate in November

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Expert: November glacial acetic acid/vinyl acetate Market Forecast

overview of external market:

opening after the festival, the domestic glacial acetic acid spot price in northwest Europe rose by 15 euros/ton. In October, large manufacturers offered goods in euro/ton FD northwest Europe, while Serbian and Ukrainian manufacturers offered lower prices in 590 euros/ton FD northwest Europe. A supplier in the United States said that the price rose in October, but it was unclear whether it would accept it. In the fourth quarter, it was intended to increase by cents/pound, but it was estimated that the increase of 6 cents/pound could be realized. The decline of natural gas price is not enough to urge the manufacturer to cancel the upward intention. One manufacturer said that only the profit can be recovered in the fourth quarter, not only to make up for the losses in September, but also to make up for the losses caused by the rise of methanol

in the middle and late September, a large unit in the UK failed to restart after stopping for maintenance for one month in mid September, and the domestic spot price rose by 5 euros/ton. It will restart at the end of October, and the demand for glacial acetic acid will increase, especially in PTA industry. Glacial acetic acid manufacturers are looking for a price higher than 600 euros/ton FD in northwest Europe. The FOB Rotterdam export price has room to rise because the explosion of a device in China has pushed the Asian price to USD/ton CFR in the Far East and CFR in Southeast Asia to USD/ton. However, the European price has. Therefore, it is expected to respond positively when the rubber spring vibrating screen starts and stops passing through the resonance zone

towards the end of the month, a device in the UK could not be restarted. This week, the spot price rose by 5 euros/ton. The device stopped in mid September and resumed in mid October. The restart was postponed to the end of October. Now it can not be restarted. Ukrainian and Serbian manufacturers raised their offer to euro/ton FD northwest Europe, while other manufacturers offered at a high price of 640 euro/ton FD northwest Europe. In November, the price was discussed in euro/ton FD northwest Europe, while the price of acetic anhydride was discussed in euro/ton FD Italy. The export price fell slightly because traders sought to open arbitrage with Asia and the supply in Asia was intensified

analysis of upstream and downstream products:

upstream methanol: the national methanol market price rose sharply in the middle of the month, and then entered the stage of steady consolidation. Local areas rose slightly under the influence of the surrounding markets. In East China, the port price is stable at yuan/ton, and the supply of goods is tight. Especially in Ningbo, there are few goods for sale. The price in North China and southwest China is RMB/ton, and the price has increased. Hebei and other manufacturers are mainly sold to Beijing or the south. The price of methanol in Central China is yuan/ton, and the supply is in short supply. The price of goods delivered to South China is stable at about 4000 yuan/ton. The local retail price in Northeast China is 3900 yuan/ton. The price in Shandong is relatively stable, and the ex factory quotation is about 3600 yuan/ton, with little difference. Most of the manufacturers focus on contract and large-scale sales, with limited retail sales

at the end of the month, the methanol market has been consolidated, and the price is relatively stable. There is little change in the prices of various manufacturers and the market. Some manufacturers and regions make slight adjustments according to the local market prices. The factory output of manufacturers in Shandong Province is RMB/ton. Some manufacturers are mainly contract users, and retail sales are limited. Some manufacturers do not report because they have no goods. The northeast region is stable at yuan/ton; The price in East China was RMB/ton, the trading atmosphere in East China coastal area became weak, and although the port market maintained a steady consolidation state, the transaction focus moved downward; In North China, the price of methanol was RMB/ton, while in Hunan and Hubei, the price of methanol was tight and the market rose by RMB/ton; In Central China, the price is yuan/ton, and the supply of methanol in Hunan and Hubei is tight, so the prices of the two places continue to rise at the beginning of the week; In South China, RMB yuan/ton; In Southwest China, RMB yuan/ton. The supply of goods is still tight, but some downstream manufacturers in some regions use the inventory in the early stage, and the receiving of goods is weaker than that in the early stage, resulting in a slight decline in the price of less than 50 yuan/ton, but the overall price is still high

downstream acetate: in the middle and late ten days, the acetate Market showed a downward trend. Although the offer in East China was at the level of 14300-14500 yuan/ton, the downstream users were not optimistic about the future market, so they took the mentality of picking up as much as they could, and there was no batch transaction. However, the offer in South China was delivered at the level of 13800-14100 yuan/ton, but the transaction was difficult. The downstream users changed the formula more, and the trading volume was small. The offer in North China was at 13800-14000 yuan/ton, The transaction situation is ordinary; In terms of ethyl acetate, although the offer of South China was delivered at 8400-8500 yuan/ton, the shipment of the holder was average, and the delivery level in East China was stable at 7700-7800 yuan/ton. The overall transaction situation on the floor was average. In view of the high price of ethyl acetate, the consumption of downstream users in South China was reduced, the sales of ethyl acetate was average, and the acetate Market showed a downward trend

future forecast:

the glacial acetic acid market has changed a lot this month, and the opening price has increased a lot after the festival. Near the end of the month, under the influence of poor sales, the price has dropped by 100-200 yuan/ton, and the on-site trading volume has not improved significantly. Jiangsu Thorpe has poor shipments at high prices, and the factory price has been lowered at the end of the month. The market price has declined slightly due to this impact. The upstream raw material methanol has been basically stable at the end of the month, but there has been a slight decline in some areas, The downstream acetate Market is weak, the sales are poor, and the unit operating rate has dropped again and again, which has little support for the future market of acetic acid. It is expected that the future market of glacial acetic acid will be mainly stable, accompanied by a slow and small decline

vinyl acetate:

raw ethylene:

market overview of Asian ethylene monomer this month

Asian ethylene: 9 is still in the period of strategic opportunity. At the end of the month, Asian ethylene continued to show a downward trend, the CFR market was bearish, and the FOB South Korea price also fell to the lowest since June 16. Market participants are unwilling to discuss the price. Instead, they retreat and watch the crude oil price carefully. Recently, the crude oil shows a recovery signal. A Japanese trader said that if the crude oil price continues to rebound next week, China's polymer demand will recover, which will support the PE and ethylene prices in the second half of October. China's polymer purchase intention will closely follow the dynamics of crude oil prices. In terms of units, SK group started the ethylene production of Weishan No. 2 naphtha cracking unit, closed the 620000 T/a ethylene unit on August 20, and completed the maintenance on September 26. SK is expected to sell the first spot in November to supply local end users. In Taiwan, the No. 5 naphtha cracking unit with a capacity of cpc500000 T/a will soon be started normally. It is known from the material mechanics that the company's 80000 T/a butadiene extraction unit has resumed production. During the National Day holiday, the energy and derivatives markets were depressed. The ethylene price in Northeast Asia fell by $60, a four month low of $1175/ton. Market participants said that SK did not operate normally after the restart of No. 1 cracking unit in Ulsan on September 25. The annual ethylene output of the cracking unit is 620000 tons/year. No one commented on the local holidays. The price of Southeast Asian ethylene rebounded by US $20/T at this stage, because Thailand showed a new purchase intention for goods delivered in November. Thailand's ethylene supply has stepped up because the downstream unit is planned to open. Vinythai plans to open a new chlor alkali farm in December, so that the capacity of VCM and EDC of the company will be expanded to 400000 T/A and 320000 T/A. Vinythai is expected to start 133000 T/a caustic soda plant and 120000 T/a chlorine plant in December. However, Southeast Asian countries such as Malaysia and Indonesia, whose territory is lower than US $1200 CFR, reflect the situation of the derivative market. In mid October, the ethylene demand in Northeast Asia market was weak, but the supply was tight, so the overall market demand was stable and the price remained stable. South Korea SK announced force majeure to its domestic aromatics users on Tuesday, and the No. 2 naphtha cracking unit in Weishan was unexpectedly shut down, but the news had little impact on the market. The buyer's intention to deliver the shipment in November was lower than US $1170/ton CFR, but the seller's target price was higher than US $1180/ton CFR. In Southeast Asia, the market price is slightly low, and the demand of polyethylene manufacturers is low, but the supply is also relatively tight, preventing further price decline. Sk Force Majeure will last from October 12 to 19. The ethylene production capacity of the company's No. 2 cracking unit is 620000 T/A. It was overhauled from August 20 to September 25, but it has not been able to reach full load since its commencement. The impact of force majeure is limited because it lasts only one week, and most of SK's ethylene production is supplied to its downstream 190000 T/a HDPE unit and 160000 T/a LLDPE unit. Some market participants said that if the maintenance of SK cracking unit is not smooth, the Korean market may rise. South Korea's yncc also shut down the No. 1 naphtha cracking unit in Lichuan on Wednesday morning for a 50 day overhaul and production expansion. The No. 2 and No. 3 units were started at full capacity, despite the workers' strike on Wednesday. The extension of the workers' strike at yncc will also stimulate the market to rise. At present, there is no trend of further escalation of strikes. Yncc is expected to successfully complete the maintenance. After the expansion, the No. 1 cracking unit with a capacity of 420000 T/a will increase its capacity by 350000 T/A. In late October, the South Korean SK still could not be started normally after it was restarted. At that time, only% of the construction was started, and the company announced that the ethylene supply of domestic users was force majeure. Sk has no plan to close down further maintenance. Some market participants expressed concern that the continuous labor strike of yncc may interrupt the commencement of construction. At present, the shutdown time of yncc1 cracking unit may be longer than expected due to the strike, and 1 cracking unit is planned to be closed for maintenance until November 29. The shutdown of SK cracking unit did not boost the demand for ethylene, because SK users also cut down on the start-up. For example, Han Hua will shut down and overhaul two VCM production lines in Weishan on October. Hanhua has 180000 T/A and 70000 T/a units. Some market participants said that the price decline slowed down and the market hit the bottom. A Japanese trader said he could not continue to reduce prices to attract buyers. The shutdown of Korean cracking unit has restricted the export. The spot demand for ethylene in Thailand is weak because the derivative demand is weak. An end-user in Thailand significantly reduced its intention to deliver goods in November to 1150 US dollars/ton CFR Thailand, previously 1250 US dollars/ton CFR

1. Quotation of vinyl acetate in Asia in October:

unit: USD/ton

region September 29 October 13 October 20 October 27 monthly rise and fall

Far East (CFR) 970967.5 970967.5 -2.5

Southeast Asia (CFR) 1010100510051000 -10

United States (FOB) 1035103510350

Europe (FOB) 975980980 +5


manufacturer dynamics: the ex factory price of Shanghai Petrochemical vinyl acetate remained stable, At present, it is 9550 yuan/ton, and the sales situation is average

the ex factory quotation of Hunan Xiangwei vinyl acetate is stable, still 9500 yuan/ton, and the off-site sales volume is small

market dynamics: this month, the mainstream quotation in East China market rose, and the current tank price rose to about 9650 yuan/ton; The market price in Shandong has risen to about yuan/ton, and that in South China has risen to about 9700 yuan/ton. Although the market has risen, the trading volume has not been enlarged; The quotation in North China market is stable at yuan/ton, and the sales situation is general

statistics of China's vinyl acetate import data in September 2006:

according to the customs statistics, the total import volume of China's vinyl acetate in September was 20108.139 tons, the cumulative total volume was 156525.706 tons, and the average price was 933.72 dollars/ton. The quantity decreased by 11.32% compared with the previous month, and the quantity increased by 15.96% compared with the same month of the previous year


on September 26, Shanghai Jinwei Petrochemical (a joint venture between SINOPEC and foreign capital) shut down its 20000 ton vinyl acetate unit and began liquidation. The joint venture has expired. The "Jinwei" unit will be cancelled. The unit may be recovered by Sinopec, and it will be started at least next year

on October 5, a South Korean ship "excellent chemist" from Japan arrived in Zhangjiagang and unloaded 1000 tons of vinyl acetate

news on October 6: two weeks ago, Dalian Chemical closed the 300000 t/a VAM old unit, while the start-up of 350000 T/a new unit decreased to%

news on October 24: the expansion plan of 20000 tons of vinyl acetate in Mudanjiang is expected to be completed in the second half of next year, when the total design capacity of vinyl acetate will be

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