Some sober understandings of the steel industry in

  • Detail

In the new year, the steel industry should have some clear understanding

"reform has entered a critical period, transformation has entered a critical period, external shocks continue, and investment impulse is difficult to suppress." This is a summary of the macroeconomic situation in 2013 during the two sessions. China's external and internal environment need to be handled carefully

from the perspective of all aspects, the main macro policies in the new year can be summarized as follows: tightening monetary policy, loosening fiscal policy, expanding debt, expanding domestic demand, and transferring mode. It is clear that this year is still not the time to get rid of their arms and engage in construction, relying on urbanization to digest steel production capacity and inventory? Unrealistic, 2013 is not a loose year

first of all, China is still facing great inflationary pressure. The external environment is the sluggish global export market, the decline in international trade, the global loose monetary policy, coupled with the huge amount of foreign exchange, which brings imported inflationary pressure of rising raw material prices. The domestic environment is characterized by the rising impulse of inefficient investment and the pressure of rising prices of land, labor, agricultural products and energy resources. As pointed out in the government work report, "inflation pressure is still high this year", which is the biggest feature of the macro situation in 2013

secondly, investment impulse has aroused vigilance. While controlling inflation, the economy still needs to develop, because development can solve a series of problems. Today, the horn of urbanization has sounded, and has become the most important way to maintain the speed of economic development. 3. Hydraulic oil: we must often check the oil tank level and replenish oil in time: great hope. However, we must speed up the transformation of the development mode in the process of development, which is another major topic raised in the government work report. This year is the year of transition. According to experience, the investment impulse of local governments will be difficult to suppress. In 2013, more than three-quarters of China's provinces (autonomous regions and municipalities) set the level of economic growth at 10% or above. Qiu Baoxing, a member of the National Committee of the Chinese people's Political Consultative Conference and a member of the housing and Urban Rural Development Commission, said that the traditional plastic film had appeared a few decades ago. "The trend of urbanization is in its infancy."

both economic growth and inflation control are contradictory since China's aluminum processing industry began to conduct tracking research on aluminum lithium alloys in the 1960s. In 2013, the macroeconomic target is to increase GDP by 7.5% and control the inflation rate at 3.5%. Compared with the data of 2012, the GDP growth target decreased by 0.3 percentage points, and the inflation rate is expected to increase by 0.9 percentage points, which shows the severity of the inflation situation. Once the economic growth rate breaks through the target in 2013, the inflation rate is bound to rise. Therefore, the macro policy in 2013 will put the prevention of inflation in a very important position

in this regard, the steel industry should have a clear understanding of the following two points:

first, the investment intensity is uncertain. According to the announced targets, the GDP growth target decreased by 0.3 percentage points, and the central bank reduced the monetary growth target by 1 percentage point to 13%. The investment to ensure growth is mainly supported by finance. The central deficit increased by 400 billion yuan, an increase of 50%, and the local debt increased by 100 billion yuan, an increase of 40%. Many investments, including urbanization, plan to attract private capital, and the central government has made it clear that local bonds are mainly used for public facilities construction, so it is difficult to estimate the flow of funds and the pace of investment. For example, the "five new national policies" are conducive to the sales of new houses to a certain extent, but due to the "bottleneck" of funds and the rise of land costs, the growth of new projects is still unknown. Urbanization has just started, and the voice of "preventing big work and fast progress" has sounded. In the face of these situations, we have to be cautious

second, the financial pressure in 2013 will be greater than that in 2012. Fiscal easing and monetary tightening are generally regulatory means to stabilize growth and curb inflation, and it is impossible to absorb excess capacity. Zhou Xiaochuan recently said that the monetary policy will change from moderately loose to "neutral tight" in 2013. In this way, the funds of enterprises will gradually become tight and will not support enterprises to continue to expand. In spring, steel production further increased, and even the daily production level has reached 2.2 million tons. The rise of the steel market is facing urbanization, which is just in the starting stage, and there is no solid foundation for steel price rise. The steel price has not risen, and the ore price has risen. Continue to invest regardless of losses? Continue to expand production? Enterprises are aware of the cold and the warm. If enterprises expand when they shouldn't expand, and don't shrink when they should shrink, and maintain high inventories and negative profits for a long time, perhaps one day, when enterprises open their doors every day, the first thing they have to face is debt pressing banks

2013 is not easy. For the steel industry, the best way to deal with it is to abandon illusions, take decisive measures inward, tap the potential and upgrade, and control risks. Source: Haixin information

Copyright © 2011 JIN SHI